In 2016, Hillary Clinton lost the election more than Trump won it. In 2020, Trump lost the election more than Biden won it. In 2024, Trump won the election.
The 2024 election was an election of 8 moments.
1. Before the Trump/Biden debate, Biden was likely to win. He likely wouldn't win by as big of a margin, but he would win the rust belt states and maybe 1 or 2 sun belt swing states. But after the debate the race became a toss up. Biden showed he wasn't fit to serve.
2. When Trump was shot the election moved into his favor. Trump looked like a badass. If Biden would have stayed in the race Trump would likely win, but in a close race.
3. Once Biden pulled out of the race everything changed again. Harris pulled the race back into a toss up.
4. After the Harris/Trump debate, Harris took the lead. Harris did just good enough and Trump struggled. At this point it looked like Harris would win the rust belt and a close race.
5. The VP debate with Vance/Waltz turned the race back to a toss up and maybe even gave Trump a slight edge. Vance did such an amazing job that the race changed to Trump and never went back.
6. Trump goes to McDonald's while Harris falls apart in her Fox News interview with Brett Bier. Harris looked weak, incompetent, and unlikeable. Trump on the other hand connected with people and looked likeable going to McDonald's. Trump turned this into a lead and looked like he would win all the sun belt swing states and at least 1 rust belt state to win the election.
7. Trump goes on Joe Rogan for 3 hours while Harris refuses to do the same. Trump won the Electoral College at this point. He was going to win all the Sun belt swing states and would definitely win one or all of the rust belt swing states.
8. Biden calls half the country garbage and Trump rids in a garbage truck. This won Trump the popular vote.
I will say Trump being shot changed the race the most. When he got up and said, Fight, Fight, Fight" it was an iconic moment. And it changed Trump too. I'm not sure Trump would have done McDonald's or the garbage truck stunts. I'm not sure he would have done all the podcasts. He did a bunch of long form podcast besides just Joe Rogan. Those podcasts let people really get to see him and he was a different man. This was the greatest political comeback of all time.
