Things are getting worse for Trump. In battleground states Trump needs to be up by 3% to overcome any election day shenanigans. Here is where I think we are with the battleground states:
Arizona: Harris
Georgia: Harris
Michigan: Harris
Nevada: Trump
North Carolina: Trump
Pennsylvania: Harris
Wisconsin: Harris
Based on the current battleground states Harris will win the Electoral College with 296 to Trump's 246. If Trump can flip any two states he can win. Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona are his best chances. The issue for Trump is that in Georgia, Pennsylvania, and Arizona all voted in a Democrat Senator in 2022 and in each state Trump basically picked the Republican candidate. So the voters in each state went against Trump.
Trump's biggest issue is that he has a ceiling in the popular vote of 48%, but any Democrat has a ceiling of 52%. Republicans have only won the popular vote in the presidential election once (2004) in the last 8 elections. So there is a lot less wiggle room for any Republican. The country is more center left. And while the vast majority of Trump supporters really love him, there is a larger portion of the population that doesn't like or hates Trump. And while many didn't want to vote for Biden as it looks like he has dementia, they are more than happy to vote for Harris.
Trump can win if he focuses on the economy/inflation and illegal immigration/the border. But him being focused on things like Harris race, not liking the governor of Georgia, the crowd sizes for him and Harris, and the election being stolen in 2020 isn't going to help.
Honestly, right now based on what Trump is doing I'm not sure he even wants to win. I think he just likes running for president and hearing all the cheering crowds.
